The Trentile Deviation Method of Weather Forecast Evaluation
天气预报评价的 Trentile 偏差法
This article outlines a method originated by the author during World War II for evaluating short range weather forecasts. An interesting feature is the use of “deviational penalty scores” to adjust for the relative ease or difficulty of forecasting for varying weather situations. A number of other studies on weather forecast evaluation by other authors lead to different methods of analysis (see references at end of article). The author has encountered situations in other…