Uniform predictive inference for factor models with instrumental and idiosyncratic betas
含特征驱动与特异 beta 的因子模型统一预测推断
This paper investigates the impact of allowing for characteristic-based time-varying factor betas on the diffusion-index type forecasts. The factor beta consists of two distinct components: the “instrumental beta” is a function of some observable characteristics, while the “idiosyncratic beta” captures more volatile residual movements. To estimate these characteristic-based time-varying betas and the corresponding factors, we apply the projected principal component analysis…