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高斯不变马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛AI 解读

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA, we show that Gaussian invariant sampling can lead to ergodic estimators with improved statistical efficiency. This is due to a remarkable property of Gaussian invariance that allows us to obtain exact analytical solutions to the Poisson equation for…

完整多元随机波动率模型的可扩展推断AI 解读

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model that imposes no restrictions on the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. Inference is achieved via a carefully designed feasible and scalable MCMC that has quadratic, rather than cubic, computational complexity for evaluating the multivariate normal densities required. We illustrate how our model can be applied on macroeconomic applications through a…

基于辅助变量与梯度的采样算法AI 解读

Summary We introduce a new family of Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers that combine auxiliary variables, Gibbs sampling and Taylor expansions of the target density. Our approach permits the marginalization over the auxiliary variables, yielding marginal samplers, or the augmentation of the auxiliary variables, yielding auxiliary samplers. The well-known Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm MALA and preconditioned Crank–Nicolson–Langevin algorithm pCNL are shown to be…

汉明球采样器AI 解读

We introduce the Hamming ball sampler, a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, for efficient inference in statistical models involving high-dimensional discrete state spaces. The sampling scheme uses an auxiliary variable construction that adaptively truncates the model space allowing iterative exploration of the full model space. The approach generalizes conventional Gibbs sampling schemes for discrete spaces and provides an intuitive means for user-controlled balance…

利用 k 段约束进行隐马尔可夫模型统计推断AI 解读

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state sequence, found via the Viterbi algorithm, or the sequence of most probable marginals using the forward–backward algorithm. In this article, we expand the amount of information we could obtain from the posterior distribution of an HMM by…