Estimating Flight Departure Delay Distributions—A Statistical Approach With Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Pattern
结合长期趋势与短期模式的航班离港延误分布估计
In this article we develop a model for estimating flight departure delay distributions required by air traffic congestion prediction models. We identify and study major factors that influence flight departure delays, and develop a strategic departure delay prediction model. This model employs nonparametric methods for daily and seasonal trends. In addition, the model uses a mixture distribution to estimate the residual errors. To overcome problems with local optima in the…