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非线性结构时间序列模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

We consider efficient methods for likelihood inference applied to structural models. In particular, we introduce a particle filter method which concentrates upon disturbances in the Markov state of the approximating solution to the structural model. A particular feature of such models is that the conditional distribution of interest for the disturbances is often multimodal. We provide a fast and effective method for approximating such distributions. We estimate a…

用于连续似然计算与最大化的粒子滤波方法AI 解读

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast and robust, and it avoids many of the pitfalls associated with current techniques based upon importance…

通过模拟进行滤波：辅助粒子滤波器AI 解读

This article analyses the recently suggested particle approach to filtering time series. We suggest that the algorithm is not robust to outliers for two reasons: The design of the simulators and the use of the discrete support to represent the sequentially updating prior distribution. Here we tackle the first of these problems.