Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market
商品供给模型中的准理性与事前价格预期：美国肉鸡市场分析
Abstract A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various…