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粗糙波动率的统计推断：极小极大理论AI 解读

In recent years, rough volatility models have gained considerable attention in quantitative finance. In this paradigm, the stochastic volatility of the price of an asset has quantitative properties similar to that of a fractional Brownian motion with small Hurst index H<1/2. In this work, we provide the first rigorous statistical analysis of the problem of estimating H from historical observations of the underlying asset. We establish minimax lower bounds and design optimal…

高维变量测量误差模型中的线性与锥规划估计AI 解读

Summary We consider the linear regression model with observation error in the design. In this setting, we allow the number of covariates to be much larger than the sample size. Several new estimation methods have been recently introduced for this model. Indeed, the standard lasso estimator or Dantzig selector turns out to become unreliable when only noisy regressors are available, which is quite common in practice. In this work, we propose and analyse a new estimator for the…

订单簿数据的模拟与分析：队列反应模型AI 解读

Through the analysis of a dataset of ultra high frequency order book updates, we introduce a model which accommodates the empirical properties of the full order book together with the stylized facts of lower frequency financial data. To do so, we split the time interval of interest into periods in which a well chosen reference price, typically the midprice, remains constant. Within these periods, we view the limit order book as a Markov queuing system. Indeed, we assume that…

四次变差及其他波动率泛函的有效估计AI 解读

We consider a multidimensional Itô semimartingale regularly sampled on $[0,t]$ at high frequency $1/\Delta_{n}$, with $\Delta_{n}$ going to zero. The goal of this paper is to provide an estimator for the integral over $[0,t]$ of a given function of the volatility matrix. To approximate the integral, we simply use a Riemann sum based on local estimators of the pointwise volatility. We show that although the accuracy of the pointwise estimation is at most $\Delta_{n}^{1/4}$,…

矩阵不确定性下的稀疏恢复AI 解读

We consider the model y = Xθ∗ + ξ, Z = X + Ξ, where the random vector y ∈ ℝn and the random n × p matrix Z are observed, the n × p matrix X is unknown, Ξ is an n × p random noise matrix, ξ ∈ ℝn is a noise independent of Ξ, and θ∗ is a vector of unknown parameters to be estimated. The matrix uncertainty is in the fact that X is observed with additive error. For dimensions p that can be much larger than the sample size n, we consider the estimation of sparse vectors θ∗. Under…