Generalizing the Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach for Regional Interindustry Employment Forecasting
推广用于区域行业间就业预测的贝叶斯向量自回归方法
The Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) employment-forecast approach is generalized using data for the state of Georgia. This study advances previous regional BVAR approaches by (1) incorporating regional input-output coefficients, (2) using the coefficients both to specify the prior means in one model and to weight the variances of a Minnesota-type prior in a second model, and (3) including final-demand effects and links to national and world economies. Out-of-sample…