HIGHER-ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION IN TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
时间序列不确定性量化的高阶近似
For time series with high temporal correlation, the empirical process converges rather slowly to its limiting distribution. Many statistics in change-point analysis, goodness-of-fit testing, and uncertainty quantification admit a representation as functionals of the empirical process and therefore inherit its slow convergence. As a result, inference based on the asymptotic distribution of those quantities is significantly affected by relatively small sample sizes. We assess…