Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA–GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices
日度电力现货价格的周期季节性 Reg-ARFIMA–GARCH 模型
Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of approximate maximum likelihood. The methods are implemented for time series of 1,200–4,400 daily price observations in four European power markets. Apart from persistence,…