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起讫点流量空间自回归模型的极大似然估计AI 解读

We introduce a spatial autoregressive hurdle model for nonnegative origin–destination flows yN,ij. The model incorporates a hurdle formulation to elucidate the different data-generating processes for zero and positive flows. Our model specifies three types of spatial influences on flow yN,ij that quantify the impact of third-party characteristics on the flow yN,ij: (i) the effect of outflows from origin j, (ii) the effect of inflows to destination i, and (iii) the effect of…

具有主导单元的空间自回归模型的 QML 与有效 GMM 估计AI 解读

This article investigates QML and GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive (SAR) models in which the column sums of the spatial weights matrix might not be uniformly bounded. We develop a central limit theorem in which the number of columns with unbounded sums can be finite or infinite and the magnitude of their column sums can be O(nδ) if δ<1. Asymptotic distributions of QML and GMM estimators are derived under this setting, including the GMM estimators with the best linear…

谁是关键参与者？青少年违法行为的网络分析AI 解读

This article presents a methodology for empirically identifying the key player, whose removal from the network leads to the optimal change in aggregate activity level in equilibrium [Ballester, C., Calvó-Armengol, A., and Zenou, Y. (2006), “Who’s Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player,” Econometrica, 74: 1403–1417], allowing the network links to rewire after the removal of the key player. First, we propose an IV-based estimation strategy for the social-interaction effect,…

由双边变量构造内生空间权重的 SAR 模型估计AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of a cross-sectional spatial autoregressive (SAR) model with spatial weights constructed by bilateral variables like the trade or investment between regions. We model the possible endogeneity in spatial weights due to the correlation between the error term in the SAR model and unobserved interactive fixed effects in bilateral variables. Using a control function approach, we propose two-stage estimation methods and establish their consistency…

具有跨期优化的空间动态模型：设定与估计AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatial interaction econometric model. There are n forward-looking agents of whom each has a parametric linear-quadratic payoff, and they interact with their neighbors through a spatial network. Considering a Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE), we derive a unique Nash equilibrium equation and construct a new spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model. For estimation, we suggest mainly the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method. Asymptotic…

动态面板模型的初始条件：组内方程与组间方程AI 解读

Summary This paper investigates the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of short dynamic panel data models. We consider their estimation on both fixed effects and random effects specifications and propose a Hausman test when exogenous variables are present. For a dynamic panel model, initial conditions play important roles in model structure and estimation, and they give rise to a between equation under the random effects framework. With the between equation properly…

采用指数概率分布的网络形成与互动模型：设定与估计AI 解读

We model network formation and interactions under a unified framework by considering that individuals anticipate the effect of network structure on the utility of network interactions when choosing links. There are two advantages of this modeling approach: first, we can evaluate whether network interactions drive friendship formation or not. Second, we can control for the friendship selection bias on estimated interaction effects. We provide microfoundations of this…

空间自回归模型的广义经验似然估计与检验AI 解读

This paper considers the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and tests of high order spatial autoregressive (SAR) models by exploring an inherent martingale structure. The GEL estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as the generalized method of moments estimator explored with same moment conditions for estimation, but circumvents a first step estimation of the optimal weighting matrix with a preliminary estimator, and thus can be robust to unknown…

具有交互固定效应的空间动态面板模型AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of a dynamic spatial panel data model with interactive individual and time effects with large n and T. The model has a rich spatial structure including contemporaneous spatial interaction and spatial heterogeneity. Dynamic features include individual time lag and spatial diffusion. The interactive effects capture heterogeneous impacts of time effects on cross sectional units. The interactive effects are treated as parameters, so as to allow…

内生时变空间权重下空间动态面板模型的拟极大似然估计AI 解读

In spatial panel data models, when a spatial weights matrix is constructed from economic or social distance, spatial weights could be endogenous and also time varying. This paper presents model specification and proposes QMLE estimation of spatial dynamic panel data models with endogenous time varying spatial weights matrices. Asymptotic properties of the proposed QMLE are rigorously established. We extend the notion of spatial near-epoch dependence to allow time dependence.…

多元与联立方程空间自回归模型的识别及拟最大似然估计AI 解读

This paper investigates a simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive model which incorporates simultaneity effects, own-variable spatial lags and cross-variable spatial lags as explanatory variables, and allows for correlation between disturbances across equations. In exposition, we also discuss a multivariate spatial autoregressive model that can be treated as a reduced form of the simultaneous equations model. We study parameter spaces, parameter identification,…

含时变内生空间权重、共同因子与随机系数的空间面板自回归模型：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

This article examines spatial panel autoregressive (SAR) models with dynamic, time-varying endogenous spatial weights matrices, common factors, and random coefficients. An empirical application is on the spillover effects of state Medicaid spending. Endogeneity of spatial weights matrices comes from the correlation of “economic distance” and the disturbances in the SAR equation. Common factors control for common shocks to all states and random coefficients may capture…

空间自回归Tobit模型的最大似然估计AI 解读

This paper examines a Tobit model with spatial autoregressive interactions. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation for this model and analyze asymptotic properties of the estimator based on the spatial near-epoch dependence of the dependent variable process generated from the model structure. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to verify finite sample properties of…

矩阵指数空间模型的大样本性质及其外国直接投资应用AI 解读

This paper studies large sample properties of the matrix exponential spatial specification (MESS). We find that the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for the MESS is consistent under heteroskedasticity, a property not shared by the QMLE of the SAR model. For the general model that has MESS in both the dependent variable and disturbances, labeled MESS(1,1), the QMLE can be consistent under unknown heteroskedasticity when the spatial weights matrices in the two MESS…

因变量非线性变换的空间自回归模型AI 解读

This paper develops a nonlinear spatial autoregressive model. Of particular interest is a structural interaction model for share data. We consider possible instrumental variable (IV) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for this model, and analyze asymptotic properties of the IV and MLE based on the notion of spatial near-epoch dependence. We also design a statistical test to compare the nonlinear transformation against alternatives. Monte Carlo experiments are designed…

空间权重矩阵内生时的空间自回归模型估计AI 解读

The spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is a standard tool for analyzing data with spatial correlation. Conventional estimation methods rely on the key assumption that the spatial weight matrix is strictly exogenous, which would likely be violated in some empirical applications where spatial weights are determined by economic factors. This paper presents model specification and estimation of the SAR model with an endogenous spatial weight matrix. We provide three estimation…

含可分离与不可分离时空滤波的固定效应面板模型估计AI 解读

This paper considers a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for a linear panel data model with time and individual fixed effects, where the disturbances have dynamic and spatial correlations which might be spatially stable or unstable. We first consider both separable and nonseparable space–time filters for the stable model. The separable space–time filter is subject to a parametric restriction which results in relative computational simplicity. In contrast to the spatial…

含极端次序统计量的社会互动模型AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce a social interaction econometric model with an extreme order statistic to model peer effects. We show that the model is a well‐defined system of equations and that it is a static game with complete information. The social interaction model can include exogenous regressors and group effects. Instrumental variables estimators are proposed for the general model that includes exogenous regressors. We also consider distribution‐free methods that use…

固定效应空间动态面板模型的有效GMM估计AI 解读

In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of GMM estimators for the spatial dynamic panel data model with fixed effects when n is large, and T can be large, but small relative to n. The GMM estimation methods are designed with the fixed individual and time effects eliminated from the model, and are computationally tractable even under circumstances where the ML approach would be either infeasible or computationally complicated. The ML approach would be infeasible if…

固定效应空间动态面板的估计：空间协整情形AI 解读

Yu et al. (2008) establish asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for a stable spatial dynamic panel model with fixed effects when both the number of individuals n and the number of time periods T are large. This paper investigates unstable cases where there are unit roots generated by temporal and spatial correlations. We focus on the spatial cointegration model where some eigenvalues of the data generating process are equal to 1 and the outcomes of…

利用中心性的社会互动模型 GMM 估计AI 解读

This paper considers the specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures and the presence of endogenous, contextual, correlated, and group fixed effects. When the network structure in a group is captured by a graph in which the degrees of nodes are not all equal, the different positions of group members as measured by the Bonacich (1987) centrality provide additional information for identification and estimation. In this case, the Bonacich…

单位根空间动态面板数据模型的估计AI 解读

This paper examines the asymptotics of the QMLE for unit root dynamic panel data models with spatial effect and fixed effects. We consider a unit root dynamic panel data model with spatially correlated disturbances and a unit root spatial dynamic panel data model. For both models the estimate of the dynamic coefficient is $\root \of {nT^3 }$ consistent and the estimates of other parameters are $\root \of {nT}$ consistent, and all of them are asymptotically normal. For the…

未知异方差下空间自回归模型的 GMM 估计AI 解读

In the presence of heteroskedastic disturbances, the MLE for the SAR models without taking into account the heteroskedasticity is generally inconsistent. The 2SLS estimates can have large variances and biases for cases where regressors do not have strong effects. In contrast, GMM estimators obtained from certain moment conditions can be robust. Asymptotically valid inferences can be drawn with consistently estimated covariance matrices. Efficiency can be improved by…

具有网络结构的社会互动模型：设定与估计AI 解读

This paper considers the specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures and the presence of endogenous, contextual and correlated effects. With macro group settings, group-specific fixed effects are also incorporated in the model. The network structure provides information on the identification of the various interaction effects. We propose a quasi-maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the model. We derive the asymptotic…