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Harmonized estimation of subgroup-specific treatment effects in randomized trials: the use of external control data

利用外部对照数据协调随机试验的亚组处理效应估计

Abstract Subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) constitute an important component of the drug development process in precision medicine. In particular, subgroup analyses of early-stage trials often influence the design and eligibility criteria of subsequent confirmatory trials and ultimately influence which subpopulations will receive the treatment after regulatory approval. However, subgroup analyses are often complicated by small sample sizes, which leads…

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Estimating the Effects of Fine Particulate Matter on 432 Cardiovascular Diseases Using Multi-Outcome Regression With Tree-Structured Shrinkage

利用树状收缩多结局回归估计细颗粒物与432种心血管疾病的关系

The positive relationship between airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is established. Little is known about effect size heterogeneity across distinct CVD outcomes. We conducted a multi-outcome case-crossover study of Medicare beneficiaries aged >65 years residing in the mainland USA from 2000 through 2012. The exposure was two-day average PM2.5 in each individual’s residential zipcode. The outcomes were hospitalization for 432 distinct…

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Bayesian Nonparametric Ordination for the Analysis of Microbial Communities

微生物群落分析的贝叶斯非参数排序方法

Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU counts across heterogeneous biological samples. In the microbial ecology community, ordination methods are frequently used to investigate latent factors or clusters that capture and describe variations of OTU counts across biological samples.…

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Bayesian Regularization of the Length of Memory in Reversible Sequences

可逆序列记忆长度的贝叶斯正则化

Summary Variable order Markov chains have been used to model discrete sequential data in a variety of fields. A host of methods exist to estimate the history-dependent lengths of memory which characterize these models and to predict new sequences. In several applications, the data-generating mechanism is known to be reversible, but combining this information with the procedures mentioned is far from trivial. We introduce a Bayesian analysis for reversible dynamics, which…

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Bayesian nonparametric analysis of reversible Markov chains

可逆马尔可夫链的贝叶斯非参数分析

We introduce a three-parameter random walk with reinforcement, called the $(\theta,\alpha,\beta)$ scheme, which generalizes the linearly edge reinforced random walk to uncountable spaces. The parameter $\beta$ smoothly tunes the $(\theta,\alpha,\beta)$ scheme between this edge reinforced random walk and the classical exchangeable two-parameter Hoppe urn scheme, while the parameters $\alpha$ and $\theta$ modulate how many states are typically visited. Resorting to de…

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