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利用不完美辅助信息增强局部共形预测AI 解读

There is growing interest in constructing conformal prediction sets that provide approximate or asymptotic conditional coverage guarantees, capturing local data heterogeneity. However, methods like localized conformal prediction (LCP) may face challenges in ensuring reliable prediction sets in regions with sparse calibration data. This paper introduces Enhanced Localized Conformal Prediction (ELCP), a novel approach that incorporates auxiliary data to refine localized…

极端连续处理效应的估计与推断AI 解读

This article studies estimation and inference for the treatment effect in deep tails of the potential outcome distributions corresponding to a continuously valued treatment, namely the extreme continuous treatment effect. We consider two measures for the tail characteristics: the quantile function and the tail mean function defined as the conditional mean beyond a quantile level. Then, for a quantile level close to 1, we define the extreme quantile treatment effect (EQTE)…

条件风险价值与条件预期损失的同时置信带AI 解读

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) are widely adopted risk measures which help monitor potential tail risk while adapting to evolving market information. In this paper, we propose an approach to constructing simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for tail risk as measured by CVaR and CES, with the confidence bands uniformly valid for a set of tail levels. We consider one-sided tail risk (downside or upside tail risk) as well as relative…

复杂抽样设计下有限总体均值的 Bootstrap 推断AI 解读

Abstract Bootstrap is a useful computational tool for statistical inference, but it may lead to erroneous analysis under complex survey sampling. In this paper, we propose a unified bootstrap method for stratified multi-stage cluster sampling, Poisson sampling, simple random sampling without replacement and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement. In the proposed bootstrap method, we first generate bootstrap finite populations, apply the same sampling…

海量数据的分布式统计推断AI 解读

This paper considers distributed statistical inference for general symmetric statistics in the context of massive data with efficient computation. Estimation efficiency and asymptotic distributions of the distributed statistics are provided, which reveal different results between the nondegenerate and degenerate cases, and show the number of the data subsets plays an important role. Two distributed bootstrap methods are proposed and analyzed to approximation the underlying…

基于多元符号的高维球形性检验AI 解读

This article concerns tests for sphericity in cases where the data dimension is larger than the sample size. The existing multivariate sign-based procedure (Hallin & Paindaveine, 2006) for sphericity is not robust with respect to high dimensionality, producing tests with Type I error rates that are much larger than the nominal levels. This is mainly due to bias from estimating the location parameter. We develop a correction that makes the existing test statistic robust with…