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贝叶斯模糊断点回归分析与义务教育回报AI 解读

Summary This paper is concerned with the use of a Bayesian approach to fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs for understanding the returns to education. The discussion is motivated by the change in government policy in the UK in April of 1947, when the minimum school leaving age was raised from 14 to 15—a change that had a discontinuous impact on the probability of leaving school at age 14 for cohorts who turned 14 around the time of the policy change. We develop a…

面板结果的贝叶斯处理效应与变量选择：产假对收入的影响AI 解读

We propose two alternative Bayesian treatment effect modeling and inferential frameworks for panel outcomes to estimate dynamic earnings effects of a long maternity leave on mothers’ subsequent earnings. Modeling of the endogeneity of the treatment and the panel structure of the earnings are based on the modeling tradition of the Roy switching regression model and the shared factor approach, respectively. We implement stochastic variable selection to test, for example, for…

走上毒品阶梯：开始使用烈性毒品的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Abstract Since empirical studies have shown that cannabis users are much more likely to initiate hard drug use, a causal linkage has been suggested (‘gateway hypothesis’). However, individual differences in proneness and accessibility to drugs provide alternative non‐causal explanations for the observed drug use pattern. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and…

资格随机设计中的处理反应数据分析AI 解读

In this paper, we develop and compare two alternative approaches for calculating the effect of the actual intake when treatments are randomized, but compliance with the assignment in the treatment arm is less than perfect for reasons that are correlated with the outcome. The approaches are based on different identification assumptions about these unobserved confounders. In the first approach, which stems from [Sommer, A., Zeger, S., 1991. On estimating efficacy in clinical…