Joint Forecasts of U.S. Marital Fertility, Nuptiality, Births, and Marriages Using Time Series Models
利用时间序列模型联合预测美国婚内生育、婚姻、出生与结婚
This article presents a new approach to forecasting U.S. marital fertility, nuptiality, births, and marriages. The analysis represents a wedding of demographic and statistical time series in models amenable to Box-Jenkins techniques of model identification, estimation, diagnosis, and forecasting. The models demonstrate the advantages in this approach in forecasting both rates and events as opposed to the common practice of simply forecasting events. Using the best models of…