A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy
利率期限结构与宏观经济的联合模型
Abstract We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic interpretation. Our model is able to accurately describe the joint dynamics for US macroeconomic variables and the yield curve. However, the observable variables do not explain the long end of the term structure. Central tendencies of these macroeconomic variables do a much better job in this respect.…