Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable
将潜在产出作为潜变量进行估计
This article proposes a new method for estimating potential output in which potential real gross domestic product (GDP) is modeled as an unobserved stochastic trend and deviations of GDP from potential affect inflation through an aggregate supply relationship. The output and inflation equations together form a bivariate unobserved-components model that is estimated via maximum likelihood through the use of the Kalman-filter algorithm. The procedure yields a measure of…