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再生核希尔伯特空间上的非参数期望短缺回归估计与推断AI 解读

Expected shortfall (ES) has emerged as an important metric for characterizing the tail behavior of a random outcome, specifically associated with rarer events that entail severe consequences. In climate science, the threats of flooding and heatwaves loom large, impacting natural environments and human communities. In actuarial studies, a key observation in modeling insurance claim sizes is that features exhibit distinct effects in explaining small and large claims. This…

高维期望短缺回归AI 解读

Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable and a set of covariates while exploring the heterogeneous effects of the covariates. In the health disparity research, for example, the lower/upper tail of the conditional distribution of a health-related outcome, given high-dimensional…

Retire：高维稳健期望分位数回归AI 解读

High-dimensional data can often display heterogeneity due to heteroscedastic variance or inhomogeneous covariate effects. Penalized quantile and expectile regression methods offer useful tools to detect heteroscedasticity in high-dimensional data. The former is computationally challenging due to the non-smooth nature of the check loss, and the latter is sensitive to heavy-tailed error distributions. In this paper, we propose and study (penalized) robust expectile regression…

利用二元工具变量估计服从者预期短缺处理效应AI 解读

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or exposure for a subpopulation is of great interest in many biomedical and economical studies. Expected shortfall, also referred to as the super-quantile, is an attractive effect-size measure that can accommodate data heterogeneity and aggregate local information of effect over a certain region of interest of the outcome distribution. In this article, we propose the ComplieRExpected Shortfall Treatment Effect (CRESTE) model under…

多协变量预期短缺回归的稳健估计与推断AI 解读

Abstract Expected shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or conditional value-at-risk, is an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimisation and has applications beyond these fields. In finance, it refers to the conditional expected return of an asset given that the return is below some quantile of its distribution. In this paper, we consider a joint regression framework recently proposed to model the quantile and ES of a response variable simultaneously,…

平滑分位数回归与大规模推断AI 解读

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for learning the relationship between a response variable and a multivariate predictor while exploring heterogeneous effects. This paper focuses on statistical inference for quantile regression in the “increasing dimension” regime. We provide a comprehensive analysis of a convolution smoothed approach that achieves adequate approximation to computation and inference for quantile regression. This method, which we refer to as conquer,…

删失分位数回归过程的可扩展估计与推断AI 解读

Censored quantile regression (CQR) has become a valuable tool to study the heterogeneous association between a possibly censored outcome and a set of covariates, yet computation and statistical inference for CQR have remained a challenge for large-scale data with many covariates. In this paper, we focus on a smoothed martingale-based sequential estimating equations approach, to which scalable gradient-based algorithms can be applied. Theoretically, we provide a unified…

高维分位数回归：卷积平滑与凹正则化AI 解读

Abstract ℓ 1 -penalized quantile regression (QR) is widely used for analysing high-dimensional data with heterogeneity. It is now recognized that the ℓ1-penalty introduces non-negligible estimation bias, while a proper use of concave regularization may lead to estimators with refined convergence rates and oracle properties as the signal strengthens. Although folded concave penalized M-estimation with strongly convex loss functions have been well studied, the extant…