Prediction of U.S. Cancer Mortality Counts Using Semiparametric Bayesian Techniques
利用半参数贝叶斯方法预测美国癌症死亡人数
We present two models for the short-term prediction of the number of deaths arising from common cancers in the United States. The first is a local linear model, in which the slope of the segment joining the number of deaths for any two consecutive time periods is assumed to be random with a nonparametric distribution, which has a Dirichlet process prior. For slightly longer prediction periods, we present a local quadratic model. This extension of the local linear model…