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将预测能力推断扩展至机器学习方法AI 解读

The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has exponentially increased over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains challenging and underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by extending the classic inference theory for predictive ability in time series to modern machine learners, such as Lasso or Deep Learning. We investigate under which conditions such extensions are possible. For standard out-of-sample…

用于模型检验的高斯过程方法AI 解读

This paper proposes a Gaussian process (GP) approach for testing conditional moment restrictions. Tests are based on squared Neyman orthogonal function-parametric processes integrated with respect to a GP distribution. This methodology leads to a general unified framework of kernel-based tests having the following properties: (i) bootstrap tests are easy to implement in the presence of nuisance parameters (they are simple quadratic forms, and there is no need to reestimate…

多值处理下的回归不连续设计AI 解读

Summary We study identification and estimation in the regression discontinuity design with a multivalued treatment. We show that heterogeneity in the first stage discontinuities can be used for the identification of the marginal treatment effects under an alternative assumption, namely, the homogeneity of the LATEs along some covariates. This assumption can often be tested and relaxed. Our estimator can be programmed as a simple two‐stage least squares regression, and…

含非参数不可观测异质性的结构模型之非正则识别AI 解读

One of the most important empirical findings in microeconometrics is the pervasiveness of heterogeneity in economic behavior (cf. Heckman, 2001). This paper shows that cumulative distribution functions and quantiles of the nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity have an infinite efficiency bound in many structural economic models of interest. The paper presents general and precise conditions to prove such results. The usefulness of the theory is demonstrated with several…

广义频带谱估计及其在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线中的应用AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a new method for estimating linear dynamic structural models. The proposed generalized band spectrum estimator (GBSE) generalizes band spectrum regression to simultaneously account for endogeneity and nonlinearities of unknown form in the first stage, while having a computationally convenient closed‐form expression in the time domain. We apply the GBSE to the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with U.S. postwar data. We find a stable…

半参数识别与费舍尔信息AI 解读

This paper provides a systematic approach to semiparametric identification that is based on statistical information as a measure of its “quality.” Identification can be regular or irregular, depending on whether the Fisher information for the parameter is positive or zero, respectively. I first characterize these cases in models with densities linear in an infinite-dimensional parameter. I then introduce a novel “generalized Fisher information.” If positive, it implies…

局部稳健的半参数估计AI 解读

Many economic and causal parameters depend on nonparametric or high dimensional first steps. We give a general construction of locally robust/orthogonal moment functions for GMM, where first steps have no effect, locally, on average moment functions. Using these orthogonal moments reduces model selection and regularization bias, as is important in many applications, especially for machine learning first steps. Also, associated standard errors are robust to misspecification…

欧拉方程的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation of pricing kernels, or equivalently of marginal utility functions up to scale, in consumption-based asset pricing Euler equations. Ours is the first paper to prove nonparametric identification of Euler equations under low level conditions (without imposing functional restrictions or just assuming completeness). We also propose a novel nonparametric estimator based on our identification analysis, which combines standard…

用单一工具变量识别多个边际效应AI 解读

This paper proposes a new strategy for the identification of the marginal effects of an endogenous multivalued variable (which can be continuous, or a vector) in a model with an Instrumental Variable (IV) of lower dimension, which may even be a single binary variable, and multiple controls. Despite the failure of the classical order condition, we show that identification may be achieved by exploiting heterogeneity of the “first stage” in the controls through a new rank…

衡量资产市场联系：非线性依赖与尾部风险AI 解读

Traditional measures of dependence in time series are based on correlations or periodograms. These are adequate in many circumstances but, in others, especially when trying to assess market linkages and tail risk during abnormal times (e.g., financial contagion), they might be inappropriate. In particular, popular tail dependence measures based on exceedance correlations and marginal expected shortfall (MES) have large variances and also contain limited information on tail…

最优线性工具变量近似AI 解读

This paper studies the identification and estimation of the optimal linear approximation of a structural regression function. The parameter in the linear approximation is called the Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximation (OLIVA). This paper shows that a necessary condition for standard inference on the OLIVA is also sufficient for the existence of an IV estimand in a linear model. The instrument in the IV estimand is unknown and may not be identified. A Two-Step…

两步半参数经验似然推断AI 解读

In both parametric and certain nonparametric statistical models, the empirical likelihood ratio satisfies a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem. For many semiparametric models, however, the commonly used two-step (plug-in) empirical likelihood ratio is not asymptotically distribution-free, that is, its asymptotic distribution contains unknown quantities, and hence Wilks’ theorem breaks down. This article suggests a general approach to restore Wilks’ phenomenon in…

依赖数据半参数回归的渐近分布无关检验AI 解读

This article proposes a new general methodology for constructing nonparametric and semiparametric Asymptotically Distribution-Free (ADF) tests for semiparametric hypotheses in regression models for possibly dependent data coming from a strictly stationary process. Classical tests based on the difference between the estimated distributions of the restricted and unrestricted regression errors are not ADF. In this article, we introduce a novel transformation of this difference…

In this paper, I investigate the estimation of linear regression models with strictly exogenous instruments under minimal identifying assumptions. I introduce a uniformly (in the data‐generating process) consistent estimator under nearly minimal identifying assumptions. The proposed estimator, called the integrated instrumental variables (IIV) estimator, is a simple weighted least‐squares estimator. It does not require the choice of a bandwidth or tuning parameter, or the…

向量移动平均表示的基本性检验AI 解读

We propose a test for invertibility or fundamentalness of structural vector autoregressive moving average models generated by non-Gaussian independent and identically distributed structural shocks. We prove that in these models and under some regularity conditions the Wold innovations are a martingale difference sequence (mds) if and only if the structural shocks are fundamental. This simple but powerful characterization suggests an empirical strategy to assess…

风险与收益关系的半参数估计AI 解读

This article proposes semiparametric generalized least-squares estimation of parametric restrictions between the conditional mean and the conditional variance of excess returns given a set of parametric factors. A distinctive feature of our estimator is that it does not require a fully parametric model for the conditional mean and variance. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimates. The theory is nonstandard due to the presence of estimated factors.…

半参数两步模型的识别与估计AI 解读

Let H0(X) be a function that can be nonparametrically estimated. Suppose E [Y|X]=F0[X⊤β0, H0(X)]. Many models fit this framework, including latent index models with an endogenous regressor and nonlinear models with sample selection. We show that the vector β0 and unknown function F0 are generally point identified without exclusion restrictions or instruments, in contrast to the usual assumption that identification without instruments requires fully specified functional…

用于估计与检验的非参数及半参数残差加权和的一致收敛AI 解读

A new uniform expansion is introduced for sums of weighted kernel-based regression residuals from nonparametric or semiparametric models. This expansion is useful for deriving asymptotic properties of semiparametric estimators and test statistics with data-dependent bandwidths, random trimming, and estimated efficiency weights. Provided examples include a new estimator for a binary choice model with selection and an associated directional test for specification of this…

向量自回归与多元非线性时间序列模型的自动设定检验AI 解读

This article introduces an automatic test for the correct specification of a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The proposed test statistic is a Portmanteau statistic with an automatic selection of the order of the residual serial correlation tested. The test presents several attractive characteristics: simplicity, robustness, and high power in finite samples. The test is simple to implement since the researcher does not need to specify the order of the autocorrelation…

条件随机占优检验AI 解读

This article proposes bootstrap-based stochastic dominance tests for nonparametric conditional distributions and their moments. We exploit the fact that a conditional distribution dominates the other if and only if the difference between the marginal joint distributions is monotonic in the explanatory variable at each value of the dependent variable. The proposed test statistic compares restricted and unrestricted estimators of the difference between the joint distributions,…

随机单调性的分布无关检验AI 解读

This article proposes a nonparametric test of monotonicity for conditional distributions and its moments. Unlike previous proposals, our method does not require smooth estimation of the derivatives of nonparametric curves. Distinguishing features of our approach are that critical values are pivotal under the null in finite samples and that the test is invariant to any monotonic continuous transformation of the explanatory variable. The test statistic is the sup-norm of the…

摘要暂缺

参数动态条件分位数模型的设定检验AI 解读

This article proposes omnibus specification tests of parametric dynamic quantile models. In contrast to the existing procedures, we allow for a flexible specification, where a possible continuum of quantiles is simultaneously specified under fairly weak conditions on the serial dependence in the underlying data-generating process. Since the null limit distribution of tests is not pivotal, we propose a subsampling approximation of the asymptotic critical values. A Monte Carlo…

聚焦平均导数的单指标限制检验AI 解读

This paper considers a situation where the violation of a single-index restriction is a concern only to the extent that it causes bias to the estimates of the average derivatives. We propose a method to construct tests that concentrate their asymptotic powers upon only such interesting alternatives. The test has a limiting distribution under the null hypothesis, and even accommodates the case where the parameter estimates have a convergence rate slower than as in the case of…