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追踪1982年西班牙社会党胜选：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

An estimate of how people intended to vote was obtained four weeks before the Spanish general elections of October 1982. The evolution of opinion was followed during the campaign. Using a small sample of polling stations, the victory of the Spanish Socialist Party was predicted with great accuracy only two hours after the polls closed. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used.

用于贝叶斯推断的参考后验分布AI 解读

Summary A procedure is proposed to derive reference posterior distributions which approximately describe the inferential content of the data without incorporating any other information. More explicitly, operational priors, derived from information-theoretical considerations, are used to obtain reference posteriors which may be expected to approximate the posteriors which would have been obtained with the use of proper priors describing vague initial states of knowledge. The…