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概率预测的尾部校准AI 解读

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts, existing evaluation techniques are ill-suited to the evaluation of tail properties of such forecasts. However, these tail properties are often of particular interest to forecast users due to the severe impacts caused by extreme outcomes. In…

美国强雷暴环境的时空极值AI 解读

Severe thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneoushigh values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable tosevere weather, and both they and the composite variable PROD = √CAPE × SRH can be used as indicatorsof severe thunderstorm activity. Their extremal spatial dependence exhibits temporal non-stationarity dueto seasonality and large-scale atmospheric signals such as El…