论文检索

学习曲线的新模型：移位自回归模型（DARM）AI 解读

This article introduces a new model for learning curves, a displaced autoregressive model (DARM). The model has theoretical and practical advantages over both the traditional exponential learning-curve model and the exponential leaming-curve model augmented by an autoregressive disturbance process. The DARM parameters can be related to the characteristics of the learning process and are easy to estimate. DARM appears to fit the data better than the alternative models,…

出生人数时间序列模型及其结构解释AI 解读

Saboia (1977) has developed a theory relating a particular type of births autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to the classical deterministic cohort model of population growth. Reexamination of the data used by Saboia indicates that his estimated births models contain common factors and insignificant coefficients and cannot be regarded as evidence in favor of his argument. It is shown, however, that well-known theory on the relationship between deterministic and…

若干澳大利亚季度时间序列的 ARMA 表示对数据修订的不敏感性AI 解读

Economic researchers are rarely able to conduct surveys or design experiments to obtain evidence with which to assess theories or hypotheses but must rely on information, such as the national income accounting data, compiled by the government bureau of statistics. The bureau revises its national income estimates as more information becomes available or as a result of changes in methods of estimation or minor changes in definitions or classifications. The purpose of this…