Factor investing: A Bayesian hierarchical approach
因子投资：贝叶斯层级方法
This paper investigates the asset allocation problem when returns are predictable. We introduce a market-timing Bayesian hierarchical (BH) approach that adopts heterogeneous time-varying coefficients driven by lagged fundamental characteristics. Our approach estimates the conditional expected returns and residual covariance matrix jointly enables evaluating the estimation risk in the portfolio analysis. The hierarchical prior allows the modeling of different assets…