The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U.K. Consumption
周期自回归模型预测英国季节性消费的表现
The parameters of a periodic model are allowed to vary according to the time at which observations are made. Periodic autoregressive models are fitted to the quarterly values of seasonally unadjusted real nondurable consumers' expenditure for the United Kingdom and its components. The periodic model offers no improvement over conventional specifications if the aggregate is modeled directly. On the other hand, periodic models generally perform well for the components, which…