Causal Inference with Spatio-Temporal Data: Estimating the Effects of Airstrikes on Insurgent Violence in Iraq
时空数据的因果推断：估计伊拉克空袭对叛乱暴力的影响
Abstract Many causal processes have spatial and temporal dimensions. Yet the classic causal inference framework is not directly applicable when the treatment and outcome variables are generated by spatio-temporal point processes. We extend the potential outcomes framework to these settings by formulating the treatment point process as a stochastic intervention. Our causal estimands include the expected number of outcome events in a specified area under a particular…