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工资收入与生育时点及间隔：瑞典纵向数据证据AI 解读

This paper considers the formulation, estimation, and evaluation of semiparametric multistates duration models with time-varying regressors and unobservables correlated over spells. The authors' models are applied to test a dynamic version of the neoclassical theory of fertility. Using Swedish data, they find that rising female wages over the lifecycle delay times to all conceptions, but barely affect childlessness. The authors estimate a model that predicts fertility…

时期总生育率预测：微观动态新古典生育模型的时间序列性质AI 解读

"This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models…

总量时期生育率预测：微观动态新古典生育模型的时间序列性质AI 解读

This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that…