Bootstrap-After-Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models
自回归模型的自助法后再自助法预测区间
The use of the Bonferroni prediction interval based on the bootstrap-after-bootstrap is proposed for autoregressive (AR) models. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using a number of AR models including stationary, unit-root, and near-unit-root processes. The major finding is that the bootstrap-after-bootstrap provides a superior small-sample alternative to asymptotic and standard bootstrap prediction intervals. The latter are often too narrow, substantially…