A Model for Rainfall Occurrence
降雨发生的概率模型
Summary A probability model for the occurrence of wet and dry days at Tel Aviv is proposed as an alternative to an earlier one given by Gabriel and Neumann. The new model, which assumes exponential distributions for the lengths of spells of continuous dryness or continuous rain, is found to fit rainfall data for Tel Aviv well, and to represent certain conditional probabilities more satisfactorily than that of Gabriel and Neumann.