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利用局部线性生存密度进行样本内预测AI 解读

In this paper, in-sample forecasting is defined as forecasting a structured density to sets where it is unobserved. The structured density consists of one-dimensional in-sample components that identify the density on such sets. We focus on the multiplicative density structure, which has recently been seen as the underlying structure of non-life insurance forecasts. In non-life insurance, the in-sample area is defined as one triangle and the forecasting area as the triangle…

广义线性时间序列回归AI 解读

We consider a cross-section model that contains an individual component, a deterministic time trend and an unobserved latent common time series component. We show the following oracle property: the parameters of the latent time series and the parameters of the deterministic time trend can be estimated with the same asymptotic accuracy as if the parameters of the individual component were known. We consider this model in two settings: least squares fits of linear…

损失分布的局部变换核密度估计AI 解读

We develop a tailor-made semiparametric asymmetric kernel density estimator for the estimation of actuarial loss distributions. The estimator is obtained by transforming the data with the generalized Champernowne distribution initially fitted to the data. Then the density of the transformed data is estimated by use of local asymmetric kernel methods to obtain superior estimation properties in the tails. We find in a vast simulation study that the proposed semiparametric…

年龄—时期—队列模型与扩展链梯模型的识别AI 解读

We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases interpretation, estimation and forecasting. The canonical parameterization is applied to a class of index sets which have trapezoidal shapes, including various Lexis diagrams and the…

生存分析中可预测性问题的一般处理方法及应用AI 解读

Very often in survival analysis one has to study martingale integrals where the integrand is not predictable and where the counting process theory of martingales is not directly applicable, as for example in nonparametric and semiparametric applications where the integrand is based on a pilot estimate. We call this the predictability issue in survival analysis. The problem has been resolved by approximations of the integrand by predictable functions which have been justified…

可分非参数模型中积分估计与回拟合估计的优化解释AI 解读

Summary We provide an optimization interpretation of both back-fitting and integration estimators for additive nonparametric regression. We find that the integration estimator is a projection with respect to a product measure. We also provide further understanding of the back-fitting method.

基于边际积分的结构化非参数回归核估计AI 解读

We define a simple kernel procedure based on marginal integration that estimates the relevant univariate quantity in both additive and multiplicative nonparametric regression.

密度估计的一种简单偏差缩减方法AI 解读

A new method for bias reduction in nonparametric density estimation is proposed. The method is a simple, two-stage multiplicative bias correction. Its theoretical properties are investigated, and simulations indicate its practical potential. The method is easy to compute and to analyse, and extends simply to multivariate and other estimation problems.