Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes
用于分析金融泡沫与崩盘的双问题调查指标
This article proposes a new double-question survey whereby an individual is presented with two sets of questions; one on beliefs about current asset values and another on price expectations. A theoretical asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents is advanced and the existence of a negative relationship between price expectations and asset valuations is established, and is then tested using survey results on equity, gold, and house prices. Leading indicators of bubbles…