An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach
美联储预测的评价：跨预测期限的合并方法
Abstract The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974–1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there…