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一阶自回归参数的渐消加权估计AI 解读

In the estimation of autoregressive parameters, biases from ordinary least-squares or maximum likelihood estimator are big even for moderately large sample sizes. A new tapering estimation technique is developed to reduce the bias. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tapering estimation in the time domain yields a substantial reduction in the bias when autoregressive parameters are positive and not very near unity, over a wide range of sample sizes.

一阶自回归参数的渐消窗估计AI 解读

In the estimation of autoregressive parameters, biases from ordinary least-squares or maximum likelihood estimator are big even for moderately large sample sizes. A new tapering estimation technique is developed to reduce the bias. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tapering estimation in the time domain yields a substantial reduction in the bias when autoregressive parameters are positive and not very near unity, over a wide range of sample sizes.

定义型变量的单变量 ARIMA 预测AI 解读

Many important variables in business and economics are neither measured nor measurable but are simply defined in terms of other measured variables. For instance, the real interest rate is defined as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate. There are two ways to forecast a defined variable: one can directly forecast the variable itself, or one can derive the forecast of the defined variable indirectly from the forecasts of the constituent…

去趋势对格兰杰因果检验的影响AI 解读

Nonstationary time series are frequently detrended in empirical investigations by regressing the series on time or a function of time. The effects of the detrending on the tests for causal relationships in the sense of Granger are investigated using quarterly U.S. data. The causal relationships between nominal or real GNP and M1, inferred from the Granger–Sims tests, are shown to depend very much on, among other factors, whether or not series are detrended. Detrending tends…

在回归中将时间作为解释变量的陷阱AI 解读

Regression of a trendless random walk on time produces R-squared values around .44 regardless of sample length. The residuals from the regression exhibit only about 14% as much variation as the original series even though the underlying process has no functional dependence on time. The autocorrelation structure of these “detrended” random walks is pseudo-cyclical and purely artifactual. Conventional tests for trend are strongly biased toward finding a trend when none is…

不恰当去趋势造成的时间序列虚假周期性AI 解读

Econometric analysis of time series data is frequently preceded by regression on time to remove a trent component in the date. The resulting residuals are then treated as a stationary series to which procedures requiring stationarity, such as spectral analysis, can be applied. The objective is often to investigate the dynamics of transitory movements in the systems, for example, in econometric models of the business cycle. When the data does consist of a deterministic…