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气候敏感度是否因地区而异？变系数方法AI 解读

Global mean surface temperature has been increasing in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2021). While Earth is getting warmer overall, regions that have different local geographical features experience unequal increases in temperature. In this paper, we develop a varying-coefficient dynamic panel data model and use it to measure local climate sensitivity, defined as the increase in temperature in a given location following a doubling of CO2…

存在协整时的高维预测回归AI 解读

We propose a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator of a predictive regression in which stock returns are conditioned on a large set of lagged covariates, some of which are highly persistent and potentially cointegrated. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed LASSO estimator and validate our theoretical findings using simulation studies. The application of this proposed LASSO approach to forecasting stock returns suggests that a…

七国集团产出的非线性自回归领先指标模型AI 解读

Abstract This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G‐7 countries. Our models use the spread between short‐term and long‐term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to…

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个体与总量食品消费函数的对应关系：美国与荷兰的证据AI 解读

This paper provides evidence from the US and Dutch budget surveys that income elasticity of family food consumption is a function of family income and other observable characteristics of the household. It also finds that the conditional variance of family food consumption depends on family income. This complicated pattern of dependence of family food consumption on income breaks the exact correspondence between the family and the aggregate food consumption functions. Simple…

个体与总量食品消费函数的对应关系：美国与荷兰的证据AI 解读

This paper provides evidence from the US and Dutch budget surveys that income elasticity of family food consumption is a function of family income and other observable characteristics of the household. It also finds that the conditional variance of family food consumption depends on family income. This complicated pattern of dependence of family food consumption on income breaks the exact correspondence between the family and the aggregate food consumption functions. Simple…