An Application of Operational-Subjective Statistical Methods to Rational Expectations
操作性主观统计方法在理性预期中的应用
This article presents a sequential scoring analysis of six econometric forecast distributions for the main components of the annual U.S. gross national product (GNP) accounts—nominal GNP, real GNP, and the implicit price deflator. Analysis of sequential forecasts is presented in terms of proper scoring rules. Computations relevant to the calibration and refinement properties of the forecast distributions are discussed. Annual data are studied for the period 1952–1982. The…