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通过限制极大似然降低时间序列回归中自回归估计的偏差AI 解读

This article considers maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation of time series regression models with autoregressive AR(p) noise. Approximate biases of the ML and REML estimators of the AR parameters, based on their approximate representations, are derived. In addition, a bias result for the ML estimator (MLE) of the error variance is established. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the biases of the MLE and REML estimator for the…

通过限制极大似然减少时间序列回归中自回归估计的偏差AI 解读

This article considers maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation of time series regression models with autoregressive AR(p) noise. Approximate biases of the ML and REML estimators of the AR parameters, based on their approximate representations, are derived. In addition, a bias result for the ML estimator (MLE) of the error variance is established. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the biases of the MLE and REML estimator for the…

多元时间序列分析基础AI 解读

This study is devoted to the analysis of multivariate time series data. Such data might arise in business and economics, engineering, geophysical sciences, agriculture, and many other fields. The emphasis is on providing an account of the basic concepts and methods which are useful in analyzing such data. The book presupposes a familiarity with univariate time series as might be gained from one term of a graduate course, but it is otherwise self-contained. It covers the…

ARIMA模型中季节移动平均单位根的检验AI 解读

Procedures to test for a unit root in the seasonal moving average (MA) operator for seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are examined. Such procedures are useful to distinguish deterministic from stochastic seasonal patterns. The simple (integrated) seasonal MA(1) model Z t ≡ Y t - Yt-s = (1 - θB s)ϵt, where {Y t} is the observed seasonal series and {ϵt} is a white noise sequence, is considered, and tests for H 0: θ = 1 versus H 1: θ < 1 are…

部分非平稳向量 ARMA 模型的估计与单位根检验AI 解读

The Gaussian estimation of a partially nonstationary autoregressive model and the related issue of testing for cointegration using the likelihood ratio test procedure have been considered by others. In this article we extend the Gaussian estimation procedure to partially nonstationary autoregressive moving average models and derive the asymptotic properties of the full-rank and reduced-rank Gaussian estimators. Based on these results, the asymptotic distribution of the…

部分非平稳向量自回归移动平均模型的估计与单位根检验AI 解读

The Gaussian estimation of a partially nonstationary autoregressive model and the related issue of testing for cointegration using the likelihood ratio test procedure have been considered by others. In this article we extend the Gaussian estimation procedure to partially nonstationary autoregressive moving average models and derive the asymptotic properties of the full-rank and reduced-rank Gaussian estimators. Based on these results, the asymptotic distribution of the…

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具有空间相关误差的回归模型AI 解读

In this article we consider regression models for two-dimensional spatial data when the errors follow a spatial unilateral first-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model studied by Basu and Reinsel. We give details on the convenient computation of the generalized least squares (GLS) estimator of the regression parameters in the presence of spatially correlated errors, and compare the GLS estimator to the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in some special cases.…

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含随机效应与 AR(1) 误差的纵向数据模型AI 解读

For longitudinal data on several individuals, linear models that contain both random effects across individuals and autocorrelation in the within-individual errors are studied. A score test for autocorrelation in the within-individual errors for the “conditional independence” random effects model is first developed. An explicit maximum likelihood estimation procedure using the scoring method for the model with random effects and (autoregressive) AR(1) errors is then derived.…

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非连续观测时间序列参数估计量的渐近分布AI 解读

The asymptotic normal distributions of two estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator and an alternative weighted least-squares estimator proposed by Wincek & Reinsel (1986) for parameter estimation of autoregressive-moving average models with nonconsecutively observed or missing data are derived for the stationary first-order autoregressive model, and also for the moving average model under periodic A-B sampling. Numerical comparisons of the explicit asymptotic variances…

非连续观测时间序列参数估计量的渐近分布AI 解读

The asymptotic normal distributions of two estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator and an alternative weighted least-squares estimator proposed by Wincek & Reinsel (1986) for parameter estimation of autoregressive-moving average models with nonconsecutively observed or missing data are derived for the stationary first-order autoregressive model, and also for the moving average model under periodic A-B sampling. Numerical comparisons of the explicit asymptotic variances…

允许非连续观测的回归—ARMA时间序列模型精确极大似然估计AI 解读

SUMMARY An explicit procedure is given to obtain the exact maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a regression model with ARMA time series errors with possibly nonconsecutive data. The method is based on an innovation transformation approach from which an explicit recursive procedure is derived for the efficient calculation of the exact likelihood function and associated derivatives. The innovations and associated derivatives are used to develop a modified…

多元时间序列的降秩模型AI 解读

This paper is concerned with the investigation of reduced rank coefficient models for multiple time series. In particular, autoregressive processes which have a structure to their coefficient matrices similar to that of classical multivariate reduced rank regression are studied in detail. The estimation of parameters and associated asymptotic theory are derived. The exact correspondence between the reduced rank regression procedure for multiple autoregressive processes and…

多元随机效应一般线性模型中经验贝叶斯估计量的均方误差性质AI 解读

Estimation of an individual's regression coefficients is considered in a multivariate general linear model, where it is assumed that the individual's coefficients β k are subject to both fixed effects and random effects over different individuals. The mean squared error matrix of a natural estimator of β k is derived for any individual k, in the general situation where all parameters of the model must be estimated, and is shown to be smaller than the mean squared error…