Post-Processing Posterior Predictive p Values
后验预测 p 值的后处理校准
This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focuses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p values (ppp). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and depend on the prior, the model, and the data. They are used in statistical practice to quantify the degree of surprise or conflict in data and to compare different combinations of prior and model. The distribution of such ppp values is far from…