NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK AND EXPECTED SHORTFALL BASED ON EXTREME VALUE THEORY
基于极值理论的条件风险价值与条件预期短缺非参数估计
We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning covariates, which may include lagged returns and other exogenous variables, are assumed to be strong mixing and follow a nonparametric conditional location-scale model. First stage nonparametric estimators for location and scale are…