Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design
消费者购买意向与购买概率：调查设计实验
Surveys of consumer intentions to buy are inefficient predictors of purchase rates because they do not provide accurate estimates of mean purchase probability. This is a consequence of the fact that intentions surveys cannot detect movements in mean probability among nonintenders, who account for the bulk of actual purchases and for most of the time-series variance in purchase rates. Comparison of predictions from alternative surveys, one of subjective purchase probabilities…