A univariate analysis of EMS exchange rates using a target zone model
使用目标区间模型对欧洲货币体系汇率进行单变量分析
Abstract The models in the literature on exchange‐rate target zones imply a non‐linear time series model for the exchange rate. We show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop Maximum Likelihood and Method of Simulated Moments estimators for the target zone model of Krugman (1991). The Maximum Likelihood estimator is based on a computationally attractive approximation to the exact predictive density of the continuous time model. Monte Carlo experiments…