Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty
模型不确定性下利用英国货币总量进行实时预测
A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of…