Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models
气候模型集合中不确定性的贝叶斯建模
Projections of future climate change caused by increasing greenhouse gases depend critically on numerical climate models coupling the ocean and atmosphere (global climate models [GCMs]). However, different models differ substantially in their projections, which raises the question of how the different models can best be combined into a probability distribution of future climate change. For this analysis, we have collected both current and future projected mean temperatures…