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构造型二元时间序列模型的计量分析AI 解读

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use binary data constructed in a way that creates serial dependence. We show that this dependence can be allowed for if the binary states are treated as Markov processes. In addition, the methods of construction ensure that certain sequences are never observed in the constructed data. Together these features make it difficult to utilize static and dynamic Probit models. We develop modeling methods that respect the…

周期研究方式的分类框架建议AI 解读

Abstract The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very different definitions of it. We propose a two‐fold classification based upon what series one is measuring a cycle in and how one would recognize a cycle in such a series. The paper illustrates how one can then categorize existing research based upon how it answers these questions. It also shows…