Modeling Waves of Extreme Temperature: The Changing Tails of Four Cities
极端温度波动建模：四座城市变化中的尾部
Heat waves are a serious threat to society, the environment, and the economy. Estimates of the recurrence probabilities of heat waves may be obtained following the successful modeling of daily maximum temperature, but working with the latter is difficult as we have to recognize, and allow for, not only a time trend but also seasonality in the mean and in the variability, as well as serial correlation. Furthermore, as the extreme values of daily maximum temperature have a…