Can We Improve Upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?
能否改进非农就业增长的初步估计？
We explore the feasibility of improving upon the preliminary estimates of payroll employment growth from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics by predicting subsequent revisions to these estimates, using the preliminary estimates themselves and other information available concurrently. Results of statistical tests suggest that the preliminary estimates can be improved upon; that is, they are not "efficient forecasts" of the revised estimates. The improvement of preliminary…