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I show that the Engle–Kozicki formulation of common features—applied to international business cycles—has some surprising, counterintuitive, and, I argue, undesirable implications. Such implications can be derived only on a case-by-case basis, however, and are necessarily specific to each application. Therefore, some attention to those possibilities might usefully accompany each application of the general common-features principle.

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[Testing for Common Features]: Comment

《共同特征检验》评论

I show that the Engle-Kozicki formulation of common features--applied to international business cycles--has some surprising, counterintuitive, and, I argue, undesirable implications. Such implications can be derived only on a case-by-case basis, however, and are necessarily specific to each application. Therefore, some attention to those possibilities might usefully accompany each application of the general common-features principle.

AI 解读阅读原文 ↗BibTeX ↓

The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds

永久与暂时成分的相对重要性:识别与若干理论界

Much macroeconometric discussion has recently emphasized the economic significance of the size of the permanent component in GNP. Consequently, a large literature has developed that tries to estimate this magnitude--measured, essentially, as the spectral density of increments in GNP at frequency zero. This paper shows that, unless the permanent component is a random walk, this attention has been misplaced: in general, that quantity does not identify the magnitude of the…

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