Synthetic Control with Time Varying Coefficients A State Space Approach with Bayesian Shrinkage
时变系数合成控制：结合贝叶斯收缩的状态空间方法
Synthetic control methods are a popular tool for measuring the effects of policy interventions on a single treated unit. In practice, researchers create a counterfactual using a linear combination of untreated units that closely mimic the treated unit. Oftentimes, creating a synthetic control is not possible due to untreated units’ dynamic characteristics such as integrated processes or a time varying relationship. These are cases in which viewing the counterfactual…