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Parameter Factorization and Inference Based on Significance, Likelihood, and Objective Posterior

参数分解与基于显著性、似然及客观后验的推断

The concepts of significance, likelihood, and objective posterior have wide ranges of application in statistics. For certain very simple applications--single location variable--there has been recognition that the three concepts produce equivalent numerical results, specifically the equality of observed level of significance, integrated likelihood extreme values, and integrated objective posterior extreme values. The most general model permitting the use of the three concepts…

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Comments

评论:非参数位置参数推断的概率解释

The article by C.A. McGilchrist produces estimates and tests for certain location parameters in nonparametric contexts; numbers are attached to these estimates and tests, and probability interpretations are ascribed to the numbers. This commentary discusses the grounds for these probability interpretations. An example is given that shows how certain formal conditional-probability calculations can violate basic principles for conditional probability, and shows how the formal…

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On Local Inference and Information

论局部推断与信息

Summary Two techniques for local unbiased estimation have been developed in recent papers (Fraser, 1964a, b). In this paper these techniques are used to examine some aspects of inference and information. Both techniques show inadequacies for translation-invariant models, and this despite the development of the second technique on the basis of conditional sufficiency which is basic to translation-invariant models. Inference and information are then examined briefly for…

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Local Conditional Sufficiency

局部条件充分性

Summary The concept of sufficiency can be examined locally for a neighbourhood of a parameter point θ0 and it leads to an estimate that has minimum variance among locally-unbiased estimates (Fraser, 1964). This local estimate generates the natural global estimate for the case of the simple exponential model, but it does not do so for the important case of the general translation model. The global estimate, the Pitman estimate, for this translation model is rooted in…

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On Local Unbiased Estimation

局部无偏估计

Summary A concept of local unbiasedness is derived from an investigation by Fisher (1956, p. 145) of consistency for a neighbourhood of a parameter point θ0. Connections are made with Cramér-Rao type inequalities and conditions obtained under which the local estimates propagate to provide globally-unbiased estimates.

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Fiducial inference for location and scale parameters

位置与尺度参数的信仰推断

Some recent papers on fiducial inference for location and scale parameters are examined from the transformation-parameter viewpoint developed in Fraser (1961a, b). For the multivariate normal case with a covariance matrix of known form, an apparent conflict between two fiducial distributions is found to be due to the inappropriate use of one of the distributions. For the multivariate normal case with an unknown covariance matrix, the Fisher-Cornish fiducial distribution for…

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On the Sufficiency and Likelihood Principles

论充分性原则与似然原则

The likelihood, sufficiency, and conditionality principles proposed by Allan Birnbaum are discussed in the context of two examples that include in their specifications a position relationship between the variable and the parameter. The discussion leads to the suggestion that the likelihood principle is too strong and that the sufficiency and conditionality principles should be used only when the necessary analysis is consistent with the position relationship between variable…

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On the Consistency of the Fiducial Method

论信推方法的一致性

SUMMARY Lindley (1958) and Sprott (1960) have proposed several criteria for the satisfactory application of the fiducial method of inference to statistical problems. The criteria are concerned with consistency when there are various ways of applying the method. In sections 1 and 2 these criteria are discussed briefly, and the range of problems that yield fulfilment of the criteria is shown to be considerably larger than that indicated by Lindley and Sprott. A frequency…

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