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大型多方程马尔可夫切换模型的推断方法AI 解读

Inference for multiple-equation Markov-chain models raises a number of difficulties that are unlikely to appear in smaller models. Our framework allows for many regimes in the transition matrix, without letting the number of free parameters grow as the square as the number of regimes, but also without losing a convenient form for the posterior distribution. Calculation of marginal data densities is difficult in these high-dimensional models. This paper gives methods to…

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脉冲响应的误差带AI 解读

We show how to correctly extend known methods for generating error bands in reduced form VAR's to overidentified models. We argue that the conventional pointwise bands common in the literature should be supplemented with measures of shape uncertainty, and we show how to generate such measures. We focus on bands that characterize the shape of the likelihood. Such bands are not classical confidence regions. We explain that classical confidence regions mix information about…

使用季节调整数据的理性预期建模AI 解读

In a world where time series show clear seasonal fluctuations, rational agents will take account of those fluctuations in planning their own behavior. Using seasonally adjusted data to model behavior of such agents throws away information and introduces possibly severe bias. Nonetheless it may be true fairly often that rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data, treating the adjusted data as if it were actual data, gives approximately correct results; and…

理解单位根研究者：鸟瞰式导览AI 解读

For the first-order univariate autoregression without constant term, the joint density (corresponding to a flat prior) for the true coefficient and its least squares estimate is estimated by Monte Carlo and graphically displayed. The graphs show how a symmetric distribution for the coefficient conditional on the estimate coexists with an asymmetric distribution for the estimate conditional on the coefficient. Prior densities implicit in treating classical significance levels…

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含部分单位根的线性时间序列模型中的推断AI 解读

This paper considers estimation and hypothesis testing in linear time series when some or all of the variables have (possibly multiple) unit roots. The motivating example is a vector autoregression with some unit roots in the companion matrix, which might include polynomials in time as regressors. Parameters that can be written as coefficients on mean zero, nonintegrated regressors have jointly normal asymptotic distribution, converging at the rate of T(superscript…

评论：Bierens 方法与时间序列模型设定检验AI 解读

Professor Bierens' approach is definitely original and interesting. We think it might become important, in particular, for testing correct specification of models (even nonlinear) in the time series context. For example, his test in Section 6 is (to our knowledge) the first test of correct specification of a model which is consistent against all stationary alternatives. Usually, specification tests checking the structure of dependence are only designed to test against a…

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评 Bell 与 Hillmer《经济时间序列季节调整涉及的问题》AI 解读

Christopher A. Sims, Comment on "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series" by William R. Bell and Steven C. Hillmer, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (Jan., 1985), pp. 92-94

宏观经济学与现实AI 解读

Existing strategies for econometric analysis related to macroeconomics are subject to a number of serious objections, some recently formulated, some old. These objections are summarized in this paper, and it is argued that taken together they make it unlikely that macroeconomic models are in fact over identified, as the existing statistical theory usually assumes. The implications of this conclusion are explored, and an example of econometric work in a non-standard style,…

关于序列相关精确检验的一则说明AI 解读

A transformation of the OLS residual vector to achieve a desired covariance structure, proposed earlier by Durbin [3], is shown to be capable of substantially changing the OLS residual vector even when that vector already has nearly the desired covariance structure. This may explain its substantially inferior performance in Monte Carlo comparisons with the transform proposed by the Abrahamse and Koerts [1]. A new transform, involving only small alterations in Durbin's…

序列相关精确检验的一则说明AI 解读

A transformation of the OLS residual vector to achieve a desired covariance structure, proposed earlier by Durbin [3], is shown to be capable of substantially changing the OLS residual vector even when that vector already has nearly the desired covariance structure. This may explain its substantially inferior performance in Monte Carlo comparisons with the transform proposed by the Abrahamse and Koerts [1]. A new transform, involving only small alterations in Durbin's…

回归中的季节性AI 解读

The effects of seasonal noise on regression estimates are considered as a type of errors-in-variables problem. The natures of asymptotic biases due to the presence of seasonal noise and to the nature of seasonal adjustment in regressions using adjusted and unadjusted data are explored. Methods for recognizing such biases and for attenuating their effects are suggested.

连续时间分布滞后模型的离散近似AI 解读

A model is considered in which a covariance-stationary exogenous process is related to an endogenous process by an unrestricted, infinite, linear distributed lag. It is shown that when an underlying continuous time model is sampled at unit intervals to yield endogenous and exogenous discrete time processes, the discrete time processes are related by a discrete time equivalent of the underlying continuous model. The relationship between the underlying continuous lag…