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极端洪水保险损失的因子 Copula 潜在藤时间序列模型AI 解读

Statistical inference on the dependence of multivariate extremes poses notable challenges, particularly in contexts characterized by large dimensions and sparse extreme observations. While copula models provide flexible parametric methods for dependence modeling, caution is warranted when using them for extremal dependence inference or tail extrapolation. In this article, a novel class of factor-vine copula models is introduced. It is designed for modeling the dependence of…

双变量极值 Copula 的秩推断AI 解读

Consider a continuous random pair (X, Y) whose dependence is characterized by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function A. When the marginal distributions of X and Y are known, several consistent estimators of A are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859–878] and Capéraà, Fougères and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567–577]. In this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are…

Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman检验的秩扩展AI 解读

This article proposes new tests of randomness for innovations in a large class of time series models. These tests are based on functionals of empirical processes constructed from either the model residuals or their associated ranks. The asymptotic behavior of these processes is determined under the null hypothesis of randomness. The limiting distributions are seen to be independent of estimation errors under appropriate regularity conditions. Several test statistics are…

多元独立性 Cramér–von Mises 检验的渐近局部效率AI 解读

Deheuvels [J. Multivariate Anal. 11 (1981) 102–113] and Genest and Rémillard [Test 13 (2004) 335–369] have shown that powerful rank tests of multivariate independence can be based on combinations of asymptotically independent Cramér–von Mises statistics derived from a Möbius decomposition of the empirical copula process. A result on the large-sample behavior of this process under contiguous sequences of alternatives is used here to give a representation of the limiting…

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Frank 二元分布族AI 解读

This paper examines the properties of a new class of bivariate distributions whose members are stochastically ordered and likelihood ratio dependent. The proposed class can be used to construct bivariate families of distributions whose marginals are arbitrary and which include the Fréchet bounds as well as the distribution corresponding to independent variables. Three nonparametric estimators of the association parameter are suggested and Monte Carlo experiments are used to…

Frank 二元分布族AI 解读

This paper examines the properties of a new class of bivariate distributions whose members are stochastically ordered and likelihood ratio dependent. The proposed class can be used to construct bivariate families of distributions whose marginals are arbitrary and which include the Fréchet bounds as well as the distribution corresponding to independent variables. Three nonparametric estimators of the association parameter are suggested and Monte Carlo experiments are used to…

外部贝叶斯意见汇总算子的刻画AI 解读

When a panel of experts is asked to provide some advice in the form of a group probability distribution, the question arises as to whether they should synthesize their opinions before or after they learn the outcome of an experiment. If the group posterior distribution is the same whatever the order in which the pooling and the updating are done, the pooling mechanism is said to be externally Bayesian by Madansky (1964). In this paper, we characterize all externally Bayesian…

用于贝叶斯更新的专家判断建模AI 解读

This paper examines how a Bayesian decision maker would update his/her probability $p$ for the occurrence of an event $A$ in the light of a number of expert opinions expressed as probabilities $q_1, \cdots, q_n$ of $A$. It is seen, among other things, that the linear opinion pool, $\lambda_0p + \sum^n_{i = 1} \lambda_iq_i$, corresponds to an application of Bayes' Theorem when the decision maker has specified only the mean of the marginal distribution for $(q_1, \cdots, q_n)$…